ACT Legislative Assembly Electoral Boundaries Redistribution 2003 Current and Projected Electoral Enrolment Statistics ACT Electoral Commission May 2003 The following statistics have been compiled for the 2003 redistribution of ACT electoral boundaries in preparation for the 2004 election for the ACT Legislative Assembly. The statistics are shown for ACT suburbs (Statistical Local Areas or SLAs) in alphabetical order (in Table 1), and also according to the existing electoral boundaries for the ACT Assembly (in Tables 2 to 4). The projections are derived from population projections and from electoral enrolments. The population projections were calculated using Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) projections relating to Statistical Local Areas (SLAs) as applied at the 2001 Population Census. The SLA projections also incorporate information gained from forecasts of new occupied dwellings as provided by the ACT Government. This data takes into account the growth of Canberra's population due to expected developments between April 2003 and October 2004. The enrolment information was supplied by the Australian Electoral Commission and applied to the 2001 SLAs. The enrolment information used in the projections was current as at 2 April 2003. The compilation of these projections was undertaken by the Australian Bureau of Statistics as a consultancy project for the ACT Electoral Commission. Methodology for the Projections The general technique employed for the projections was the cohort-component method, widely accepted as the most accurate age/sex population projection method. It involves applying fertility and mortality rates and migration levels to the base population to produce a projected population, which in turn becomes the base for projecting further years. A three-tiered approach was taken to the process of calculating the projected enrolments. 1. The ACT population was projected by age and sex from June 2002 to June 2005. 2. The populations of all ACT SLAs were projected by age and sex and constrained to the total at 1. 3. Actual enrolments as at 2 April 2003 were used to calibrate the SLA population projections, resulting in projected enrolments as at 16 October 2004. 1. Projections of the Total Population of the ACT The base population for the ACT cohort-component projections was the ABS 30 June 2002 Estimated Resident Population. This incorporated results from the 2001 Census of Population and Housing. The assumptions for fertility and mortality were from Population Projections 1999 to 2101 (ABS Cat. No. 3222.0). While the fertility assumption was irrelevant for short-term projections of persons aged 18 and over, the mortality assumption was adjusted to reflect more recent years' observed death levels. The migration assumptions were provided by the ACT Government and are shown below: Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration 2002/2005 ( per annum) 0 326 2. Projections of the Populations of the SLAs (Suburbs) The base population for the SLA cohort-component projections was the final 30 June 2001 SLA age/sex Estimated Resident Population. The fertility, mortality and migration assumptions were based on an assessment of SLA-specific levels and trends observed since the mid-1990s. At each yearly cycle in this process, the SLA projections were constrained to sum to the total ACT projection, helping to produce more reliable SLA results. In addition to trend analysis, the SLA net migration assumptions incorporated forecasts of new occupied dwellings as provided by the ACT Government. Furthermore, the 2001/2002 SLA migration assumptions used recently published June 2002 preliminary SLA Estimated Resident Population totals. Final scaling was conducted to ensure the SLA migration summed to the assumed total ACT levels. The age/sex distribution for the migration assumptions were based on overseas and inter-regional migration rates used in the calculation of published ABS SLA age/sex population estimates, which were originally derived from 1996 Population Census migration data. The SLA projection results were collapsed into the age group 18 years or more and these were then interpolated to give results as at 2 April 2003 and 16 October 2004. 3. Projected Enrolments in SLAs SLA projected population 18 years or more as at 2 April 2003 was subtracted from the 16 October 2004 SLA projected population of 18 years or more to give the estimated population growth or decline in each SLA. This was then added to the electoral roll data of 2 April 2003 to give an estimate of the projected enrolments by SLA at 16 October 2004. Disclaimer Any population projections are subject to some degree of uncertainty because it is impossible to exactly predict future trends, particularly the future level of migration. Projection of the population of small areas is especially hazardous. However, care has been taken to produce the best possible projections from the data currently available. It is important to recognise that the projection results given in this document essentially reflect the assumptions made about future fertility, mortality and migration trends. While the assumptions are formulated on the basis of an objective assessment of demographic trends over the past decade and their likely future dynamics, there can be no certainty that they will be realised. While ABS takes responsibility for the methodology employed, in accordance with ABS policy regarding small area population projections the assumptions used are the final responsibility of the client, and the projections are not official ABS population statistics. The projections may be referred to as "...projections prepared by the ABS according to assumptions reflecting prevailing trends and anticipated new dwelling occupancies agreed to by the ACT Electoral Commission...". No liability will be accepted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics for any damages arising from decisions or actions based upon this population projection consultancy service. Table 1: Australian Capital Territory Suburb Actual persons enrolled 2 April 2003 Projected persons enrolled 16 October 2004 % change Acton 326 326 0.00% Ainslie 3426 3416 -0.29% Amaroo 2574 2791 8.43% Aranda 1814 1791 -1.27% Banks 2282 2309 1.18% Barton 281 281 0.00% Belconnen Town Centre 1740 1903 9.37% Belconnen - SSD Balance 0 0 Bonython 2232 2281 2.20% Braddon 1930 2626 36.06% Bruce 1675 1811 8.12% Calwell 3905 3923 0.46% Campbell/Duntroon 3573 3601 0.78% Chapman 2223 2199 -1.08% Charnwood 2097 2089 -0.38% Chifley 1674 1670 -0.24% Chisholm 3607 3583 -0.67% City 207 709 242.51% Conder 2884 3077 6.69% Cook 2158 2124 -1.58% Curtin 3845 3825 -0.52% Deakin 1972 2082 5.58% Dickson 1358 1414 4.12% Downer 2382 2393 0.46% Duffy 2354 2292 -2.63% Dunlop 2193 2546 16.10% Evatt 4100 4111 0.27% Fadden 2390 2379 -0.46% Farrer 2556 2580 0.94% Fisher 2337 2327 -0.43% Florey 3604 3611 0.19% Flynn 2673 2651 -0.82% Forrest 860 906 5.35% Fraser 1639 1579 -3.66% Fyshwick 19 19 0.00% Garran 2130 2163 1.55% Gilmore 1829 1848 1.04% Giralang 2570 2536 -1.32% Gordon 4744 4835 1.92% Gowrie 2246 2267 0.93% Greenway 720 872 21.11% Griffith 2885 2924 1.35% Gungahlin - Balance 229 1544 574.24% Hackett 2240 2211 -1.29% Hall 250 250 0.00% Harman 72 72 0.00% Hawker 2277 2248 -1.27% Higgins 2267 2228 -1.72% Holder 2077 2038 -1.88% Holt 3505 3432 -2.08% Hughes 2142 2119 -1.07% Hume 15 15 0.00% Isaacs 1879 1901 1.17% Isabella Plains 2731 2721 -0.37% Jerrabomberra 0 0 Kaleen 5735 5736 0.02% Kambah 11987 11869 -0.98% Kingston 1411 1769 25.37% Kowen 20 20 0.00% Latham 2719 2689 -1.10% Lyneham 3054 3053 -0.03% Lyons 1751 1709 -2.40% McKellar 1899 1972 3.84% Macarthur 1058 1081 2.17% Macgregor 2650 2663 0.49% Macquarie 1700 1690 -0.59% Majura 0 0 Mawson 2102 2077 -1.19% Melba 2497 2464 -1.32% Mitchell 2 2 0.00% Monash 3988 3993 0.13% Narrabundah 3956 3917 -0.99% Ngunnawal 5906 5928 0.37% Nicholls 4044 4227 4.53% Oaks Estate 188 188 0.00% O'Connor 3432 3463 0.90% O'Malley 597 704 17.92% Oxley 1235 1239 0.32% Page 1951 1933 -0.92% Palmerston 3788 3798 0.26% Parkes 5 5 0.00% Pearce 1852 1833 -1.03% Phillip 1345 1376 2.30% Pialligo 200 200 0.00% Red Hill 2181 2243 2.84% Reid 1112 1113 0.09% Richardson 2174 2198 1.10% Rivett 2374 2360 -0.59% Russell 0 0 Scullin 2118 2089 -1.37% Spence 1951 1910 -2.10% Stirling 1586 1567 -1.20% Stromlo 90 90 0.00% Symonston 277 277 0.00% Theodore 2513 2510 -0.12% Torrens 1617 1606 -0.68% Tuggeranong - SSD Balance 19 19 0.00% Turner 1315 1615 22.81% Wanniassa 6014 5979 -0.58% Waramanga 1969 1930 -1.98% Watson 2637 2791 5.84% Weetangera 2042 2029 -0.64% Weston 2520 2492 -1.11% Weston Creek - SSD Balance 0 0 Yarralumla 2281 2297 0.70% Remainder of ACT 233 233 0.00% Total 219793 224395 2.09% Table 2: Brindabella Suburb Actual persons enrolled 2 April 2003 Projected persons enrolled 16 October 2004 % change Banks 2282 2309 1.18% Bonython 2232 2281 2.20% Calwell 3905 3923 0.46% Chifley 1674 1670 -0.24% Chisholm 3607 3583 -0.67% Conder 2884 3077 6.69% Fadden 2390 2379 -0.46% Gilmore 1829 1848 1.04% Gordon 4744 4835 1.92% Gowrie 2246 2267 0.93% Greenway 720 872 21.11% Isabella Plains 2731 2721 -0.37% Kambah 11987 11869 -0.98% Macarthur 1058 1081 2.17% Monash 3988 3993 0.13% Oxley 1235 1239 0.32% Pearce 1852 1833 -1.03% Remainder of ACT 233 233 0.00% Richardson 2174 2198 1.10% Theodore 2513 2510 -0.12% Torrens 1617 1606 -0.68% Tuggeranong - SSD Balance 19 19 0.00% Wanniassa 6014 5979 -0.58% Total 63934 64325 0.61% Quota 64645 65999 Variation from quota -1.10% -2.54% Table 3: Ginninderra Suburb Actual persons enrolled 2 April 2003 Projected persons enrolled 16 October 2004 % change Aranda 1814 1791 -1.27% Belconnen - SSD Balance 0 0 Belconnen Town Centre 1740 1903 9.37% Bruce 1675 1811 8.12% Charnwood 2097 2089 -0.38% Cook 2158 2124 -1.58% Dunlop 2193 2546 16.10% Evatt 4100 4111 0.27% Florey 3604 3611 0.19% Flynn 2673 2651 -0.82% Fraser 1639 1579 -3.66% Giralang 2570 2536 -1.32% Hall 250 250 0.00% Hawker 2277 2248 -1.27% Higgins 2267 2228 -1.72% Holt 3505 3432 -2.08% Kaleen 5735 5736 0.02% Latham 2719 2689 -1.10% Macgregor 2650 2663 0.49% Macquarie 1700 1690 -0.59% McKellar 1899 1972 3.84% Melba 2497 2464 -1.32% Nicholls 4044 4227 4.53% Page 1951 1933 -0.92% Scullin 2118 2089 -1.37% Spence 1951 1910 -2.10% Weetangera 2042 2029 -0.64% Total 63868 64312 0.70% Quota 64645 65999 Variation from quota -1.20% -2.56% Table 4: Molonglo Suburb Actual persons enrolled 2 April 2003 Projected persons enrolled 16 October 2004 % change Acton 326 326 0.00% Ainslie 3426 3416 -0.29% Amaroo 2574 2791 8.43% Barton 281 281 0.00% Braddon 1930 2626 36.06% Campbell/Duntroon 3573 3601 0.78% Chapman 2223 2199 -1.08% City 207 709 242.51% Curtin 3845 3825 -0.52% Deakin 1972 2082 5.58% Dickson 1358 1414 4.12% Downer 2382 2393 0.46% Duffy 2354 2292 -2.63% Farrer 2556 2580 0.94% Fisher 2337 2327 -0.43% Forrest 860 906 5.35% Fyshwick 19 19 0.00% Garran 2130 2163 1.55% Griffith 2885 2924 1.35% Gungahlin - Balance 229 1544 574.24% Hackett 2240 2211 -1.29% Harman 72 72 0.00% Holder 2077 2038 -1.88% Hughes 2142 2119 -1.07% Hume 15 15 0.00% Isaacs 1879 1901 1.17% Jerrabomberra 0 0 Kingston 1411 1769 25.37% Kowen 20 20 0.00% Lyneham 3054 3053 -0.03% Lyons 1751 1709 -2.40% Majura 0 0 Mawson 2102 2077 -1.19% Mitchell 2 2 0.00% Narrabundah 3956 3917 -0.99% Ngunnawal 5906 5928 0.37% Oaks Estate 188 188 0.00% O'Connor 3432 3463 0.90% O'Malley 597 704 17.92% Palmerston 3788 3798 0.26% Parkes 5 5 0.00% Phillip 1345 1376 2.30% Pialligo 200 200 0.00% Red Hill 2181 2243 2.84% Reid 1112 1113 0.09% Rivett 2374 2360 -0.59% Russell 0 0 Stirling 1586 1567 -1.20% Stromlo 90 90 0.00% Symonston 277 277 0.00% Turner 1315 1615 22.81% Waramanga 1969 1930 -1.98% Watson 2637 2791 5.84% Weston 2520 2492 -1.11% Weston Creek - SSD Balance 0 0 Yarralumla 2281 2297 0.70% Total 91991 95758 4.09% Quota 90503 92398 Variation from quota +1.64% +3.64%