Current and Projected Electoral Enrolment Statistics The following statistics have been compiled for the 2000 redistribution of ACT electoral boundaries in preparation for the 2001 election for the ACT Legislative Assembly. The statistics are shown for ACT suburbs (Statistical Local Areas or SLAs) in alphabetical order (in Table 1), and also according to the existing electoral boundaries for the ACT Assembly (in Tables 2 to 4). The projections are derived from population projections and from electoral enrolments. The population projections were calculated using Australian Bureau of Statistics projections relating to Statistical Local Areas (SLAs) as applied at the 1996 Population Census. The SLA projections also incorporate information gained from forecasts of new occupied dwellings as provided by the ACT Government. This data takes into account the growth of Canberra's population due to expected developments between March 1999 and June 2001. The enrolment information was supplied by the Australian Electoral Commission and applied to the 1996 SLAs. The enrolment information used in the projections was current as at the close of rolls on 8 October 1999 for the 1999 Federal referendum. The compilation of these projections was undertaken by the Australian Bureau of Statistics as a consultancy project for the ACT Electoral Commission. Methodology for the Projections The general technique employed for the projections was the cohort-component method, widely accepted as the most accurate age/sex population projection method. It involves applying fertility and mortality rates and migration levels to the base population to produce a projected population, which in turn becomes the base for projecting further years. A three-tiered approach was taken to the process of calculating the projected enrolments. 1. The ACT population was projected by age and sex from June 1998 to June 2002. 2. The population of all ACT SLAs were projected by age and sex and constrained to the total at 1. 3. Actual enrolments as at 8 October 1999 were used to calibrate the SLA population projections, resulting in projected enrolments as at 20 October 2001. 1. Projections of the Total Population of the ACT The base population for the State cohort-component projections was the ABS 30 June 1998 Estimated Resident Population. The assumptions for fertility and mortality were from Population Projections 1997 to 2051 (ABS, Cat. No. 3222.0) published on 14 July 1998. The "low" fertility assumption was selected (a total fertility rate declining to 1.60 births per woman in 2005/2006). The migration assumptions are shown below. Note that the 1998/1999 levels were based on many months of known data. Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration 1998/1999 0 -1700 1999/2000 300 -1000 2000/2001 300 -500 2001/2002 300 0 2. Projections of the Populations of the SLAs (Suburbs) The base population for the SLA cohort-component projections was the 30 June 1998 SLA age/sex Estimated Resident Population. The fertility, mortality and migration assumptions were based on an assessment of SLA-specific levels and trends observed since the early 1990s. At each yearly cycle in this process, the SLA projections were constrained to sum to the total ACT projection, helping to produce more reliable SLA results. In addition to trend analysis, the SLA net migration assumptions incorporated forecasts of new occupied dwellings as provided by the ACT Government. Final scaling was conducted to ensure the SLA migration summed to the assumed total ACT levels. The age/sex distribution for the migration assumptions were based on overseas and inter-regional migration rates used in the calculation of published ABS SLA age/sex population estimates, which were originally derived from 1996 Population Census migration data. The SLA projection results were collapsed into the age group 18 years or more and these were then interpolated to give results as at 8 October 1999 and 20 October 2001. 3. Projected Enrolments in SLAs SLA projected population 18 years or more as at 8 October 1999 was then compared with electoral roll data of the same date. Any differences were then applied to the 20 October SLA projected population of 18 years or more to give projected enrolments by SLA. Disclaimer Any population projections are subject to some degree of uncertainty because it is impossible to exactly predict future trends, particularly the future level of migration. Projection of the population of small areas is especially hazardous. However, care has been taken to produce the best possible projections from the data currently available. It is important to recognise that the projection results given in this report essentially reflect the assumptions made about future fertility, mortality and migration trends. While the assumptions are formulated on the basis of an objective assessment of demographic trends over the past decade and their likely future dynamics, there can be no certainty that they will be realised. While ABS takes responsibility for the methodology employed, in accordance with ABS policy regarding small area population projections the assumptions used are the final responsibility of the client, and the projections are not official ABS population statistics. The projections may be referred to as "...projections prepared by the ABS according to assumptions reflecting prevailing trends agreed to by the ACT Electoral Commission...". No liability will be accepted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics for any damages arising from decisions or actions based upon this population projection consultancy service. Table 1: Australian Capital Territory Suburb Actual persons enrolled 8 October 1999 Projected persons enrolled 20 October 2001 % change Acton 259 259 0.00% Ainslie 3289 3316 0.82% Amaroo 1200 1742 45.17% Aranda 1857 1829 -1.51% Banks 2251 2293 1.87% Barton 362 362 0.00% Belconnen Town Centre 1724 1775 2.96% Belconnen - SSD Balance 43 43 0.00% Bonython 2231 2239 0.36% Braddon 1823 2191 20.19% Bruce 1373 1648 20.03% Calwell 3731 3920 5.07% Campbell 2344 2304 -1.71% Chapman 2269 2214 -2.42% Charnwood 2069 2209 6.77% Chifley 1702 1639 -3.70% Chisholm 3456 3493 1.07% City 82 710 765.85% Conder 2442 2576 5.49% Cook 2194 2127 -3.05% Curtin 3845 3788 -1.48% Deakin 1902 1849 -2.79% Dickson 1371 1389 1.31% Downer 2376 2355 -0.88% Duffy 2456 2420 -1.47% Dunlop 988 1360 37.65% Duntroon 1440 1440 0.00% Evatt 4096 4111 0.37% Fadden 2347 2390 1.83% Farrer 2569 2504 -2.53% Fisher 2359 2294 -2.76% Florey 3522 3516 -0.17% Flynn 2712 2705 -0.26% Forrest 870 846 -2.76% Fraser 1713 1748 2.04% Fyshwick 36 36 0.00% Garran 1829 2127 16.29% Gilmore 1878 1901 1.22% Giralang 2598 2567 -1.19% Gordon 4397 4889 11.19% Gowrie 2192 2245 2.42% Greenway 710 773 8.87% Griffith 2763 2822 2.14% Gungahlin - Balance 28 335 1096.43% Hackett 2244 2195 -2.18% Hall 245 245 0.00% Harman 65 65 0.00% Hawker 2297 2358 2.66% Higgins 2333 2270 -2.70% Holder 2103 2040 -3.00% Holt 3439 3507 1.98% Hughes 2091 2080 -0.53% Hume 11 11 0.00% Isaacs 1898 1846 -2.74% Isabella Plains 2694 2696 0.07% Jerrabomberra 15 15 0.00% Kaleen 5697 5695 -0.04% Kambah 11778 11745 -0.28% Kingston 1402 1466 4.56% Kowen 15 15 0.00% Latham 2759 2781 0.80% Lyneham 2804 3086 10.06% Lyons 1853 1819 -1.83% McKellar 1897 1945 2.53% Macarthur 1058 1084 2.46% Macgregor 2709 2665 -1.62% Macquarie 1744 1696 -2.75% Majura 159 159 0.00% Mawson 2117 2111 -0.28% Melba 2542 2477 -2.56% Mitchell 2 2 0.00% Monash 3745 3857 2.99% Narrabundah 3816 3879 1.65% Ngunnawal 5070 5576 9.98% Nicholls 2425 3039 25.32% Oaks Estate 187 183 -2.14% O'Connor 3374 3348 -0.77% O'Malley 586 595 1.54% Oxley 1228 1221 -0.57% Page 1971 2049 3.96% Palmerston 3536 3883 9.81% Parkes 6 6 0.00% Pearce 1919 1886 -1.72% Phillip 1303 1280 -1.77% Pialligo 89 89 0.00% Red Hill 2165 2182 0.79% Reid 1164 1120 -3.78% Richardson 2021 2044 1.14% Rivett 2447 2407 -1.63% Russell 0 0 0.00% Scullin 2067 2031 -1.74% Spence 1982 1964 -0.91% Stirling 1541 1601 3.89% Stromlo 61 61 0.00% Symonston 272 272 0.00% Theodore 2554 2595 1.61% Torrens 1678 1641 -2.21% Tuggeranong - SSD Balance 49 49 0.00% Turner 1230 1442 17.24% Wanniassa 5857 5827 -0.51% Waramanga 1967 1901 -3.36% Watson 2359 2620 11.06% Weetangera 2070 2024 -2.22% Weston 2531 2476 -2.17% Weston Creek - SSD Balance 14 14 0.00% Yarralumla 2187 2148 -1.78% Remainder of ACT 205 205 0.00% ACT Total 211345 216888 2.62% Table 2: Brindabella Suburb Actual persons enrolled 8 October 1999 Projected persons enrolled 20 October 2001 % change Banks 2251 2293 1.87% Bonython 2231 2239 0.36% Calwell 3731 3920 5.07% Chifley 1702 1639 -3.70% Chisholm 3456 3493 1.07% Conder 2442 2576 5.49% Fadden 2347 2390 1.83% Gilmore 1878 1901 1.22% Gordon 4397 4889 11.19% Gowrie 2192 2245 2.42% Greenway 710 773 8.87% Isabella Plains 2694 2696 0.07% Kambah 11778 11745 -0.28% Macarthur 1058 1084 2.46% Monash 3745 3857 2.99% Oxley 1228 1221 -0.57% Pearce 1919 1886 -1.72% Remainder of ACT 205 205 0.00% Richardson 2021 2044 1.14% Theodore 2554 2595 1.61% Torrens 1678 1641 -2.21% Tuggeranong - SSD Balance 49 49 0.00% Wanniassa 5857 5827 -0.51% Brindabella Total 62123 63208 1.75% Quota 62160 63791 Variation from quota -0.06% -0.91% Table 3: Ginninderra Suburb Actual persons enrolled 8 October 1999 Projected persons enrolled 20 October 2001 % change Aranda 1857 1829 -1.51% Belconnen - SSD Balance 43 43 0.00% Belconnen Town Centre 1724 1775 2.96% Bruce 1373 1648 20.03% Charnwood 2069 2209 6.77% Cook 2194 2127 -3.05% Dunlop 988 1360 37.65% Evatt 4096 4111 0.37% Florey 3522 3516 -0.17% Flynn 2712 2705 -0.26% Fraser 1713 1748 2.04% Giralang 2598 2567 -1.19% Hall 245 245 0.00% Hawker 2297 2358 2.66% Higgins 2333 2270 -2.70% Holt 3439 3507 1.98% Kaleen 5697 5695 -0.04% Latham 2759 2781 0.80% Macgregor 2709 2665 -1.62% Macquarie 1744 1696 -2.75% McKellar 1897 1945 2.53% Melba 2542 2477 -2.56% Page 1971 2049 3.96% Scullin 2067 2031 -1.74% Spence 1982 1964 -0.91% Weetangera 2070 2024 -2.22% Ginninderra Total 58641 59345 1.20% Quota 62160 63791 Variation from quota -5.66% -6.97% Table 4: Molonglo Suburb Actual persons enrolled 8 October 1999 Projected persons enrolled 20 October 2001 % change Acton 259 259 0.00% Ainslie 3289 3316 0.82% Amaroo 1200 1742 45.17% Barton 362 362 0.00% Braddon 1823 2191 20.19% Campbell 2344 2304 -1.71% Chapman 2269 2214 -2.42% City 82 710 765.85% Curtin 3845 3788 -1.48% Deakin 1902 1849 -2.79% Dickson 1371 1389 1.31% Downer 2376 2355 -0.88% Duffy 2456 2420 -1.47% Duntroon 1440 1440 0.00% Farrer 2569 2504 -2.53% Fisher 2359 2294 -2.76% Forrest 870 846 -2.76% Fyshwick 36 36 0.00% Garran 1829 2127 16.29% Griffith 2763 2822 2.14% Gungahlin - SSD Balance 28 335 1096.43% Hackett 2244 2195 -2.18% Harman 65 65 0.00% Holder 2103 2040 -3.00% Hughes 2091 2080 -0.53% Hume 11 11 0.00% Isaacs 1898 1846 -2.74% Jerrabomberra 15 15 0.00% Kingston 1402 1466 4.56% Kowen 15 15 0.00% Lyneham 2804 3086 10.06% Lyons 1853 1819 -1.83% Majura 159 159 0.00% Mawson 2117 2111 -0.28% Mitchell 2 2 0.00% Narrabundah 3816 3879 1.65% Ngunnawal 5070 5576 9.98% Nicholls 2425 3039 25.32% Oaks Estate 187 183 -2.14% O'Connor 3374 3348 -0.77% O'Malley 586 595 1.54% Palmerston 3536 3883 9.81% Parkes 6 6 0.00% Phillip 1303 1280 -1.77% Pialligo 89 89 0.00% Red Hill 2165 2182 0.79% Reid 1164 1120 -3.78% Rivett 2447 2407 -1.63% Russell 0 0 0.00% Stirling 1541 1601 3.89% Stromlo 61 61 0.00% Symonston 272 272 0.00% Turner 1230 1442 17.24% Waramanga 1967 1901 -3.36% Watson 2359 2620 11.06% Weston 2531 2476 -2.17% Weston Creek - SSD Balance 14 14 0.00% Yarralumla 2187 2148 -1.78% Molonglo Total 90581 94335 4.14% Quota 87024 89307 Variation from quota 4.09% 5.63%